Real Solutions for the Mangled Mets

"The Mets believed they were a starter away after 2007 and added Santana. They thought they were a closer away after 2008 and signed Frankie Rodriguez. After an '09 season in which they were passed by the Braves and Marlins and finished significantly closer to last place than first, they know they need more than a one-player fix. How it all can be accomplished doesn't seem clear or particularly easy to do." - Marty Noble, Mets Analyst

I can already hear what people who read my column are going to say about this article: Hayden is just an idealistic homer of a Mets fan who has no idea how the MLB actually works. Put that notion aside, people. I am an angry Mets fan. I am a bitter Mets fan. I have struggled and floundered through the worst sports season of my entire 16 year life. Every week this summer, it seemed that a new superstar was injured or someone made a ridiculously embarrassing play (i.e. Ryan Church missing 3rd base or Fernando Martinez collapsing before a fly ball in the OF). In fact, the 2009 Mets players on the disabled list have combined to hit 1,066 home runs, win 249 games, and make 18 All-Star games. The saddest part of it all is that my little 7 year old brother started watching baseball this year. He was obsessed with the Mets. I felt horrible having to tell him that it was an accomplishment for the Mets to finish ahead of the Washington Nationals. Don't make me go through another season like this, Omar Minaya, please.

Now I don't expect you to pity me (maybe just a little bit), yet I do expect you to hear me through. I am probably not going to write another column solely devoted to my beloved Mets. But I have so many bottled up feelings about my woeful team that it is probably good for my health to let it all out.

As the year dwindled on and analysts started looking towards the baseball offseason, many writers found it comical to play tricks on us Mets fans. I have read too many articles that claim they have the solution for the Met's problems, yet at the end of the article only humiliation of New York's lesser team has been accomplished. In these heinous articles, writers would first: state all of the Met's problems, second: state how bad last season was, and third: windup saying nothing specific about what moves the Mets could possibly make and basically saying that they have so many issues with holes and money that there really is no solution. I hate these articles with a fiery passion.

I have a purpose to writing this article. I will give you a solution to the Mets 2010 season. I know that my solution may be idealistic. I know that it probably will not happen. I know that the Wilpons most likely do not have the money to complete my propositions. But I need hope. I need something to look forward to. I cannot imagine being a Pittsburgh Pirates fan for the last 17 years because I have suffered these past 3 as a Mets fan in a Phillies town, and I cannot stand it any longer. Enough with the emotion. Here is my logic. The Mets are built to win now. They have a few prospects who have a bright future, but many of their minor leaguers have struggled in the majors. People will say they need to stink for a couple of years and renew the farm system. I disagree. The Mets have many players in their prime that are ready to win now. I propose that the Mets go hard or go home and spend some money this season, even if that may be hard to fathom. I hate to say that throwing money at players will solve their issues, but I truly believe this is the only way. I think the Mets are 3 moves away from success in 2010:

1. Trade 1B Ike Davis, OF Fernando Martinez, P Bobby Parnell, and cash for 1B Prince Fielder

There have been rumors that the Brew Crew are dangling one of their two offensive stars. When you have a small market team like the Brewers, it is usually hard to retain big named players once they are developed and ready for a contract. They can only keep Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder in the next 1-3 years as they approach their respective pay days. I say that the Mets should take advantage of this situation, trade some unproven prospects, and wallah... they have solved their problem for a huge power bat, and filled the hole at first base. Prince would change the opinion about the spacious Citi Field after a season in which Daniel Murphy led the Mets with 12 home runs. This, of course, means that Carlos Delgado's tenure as a Met is over.

2. Sign SP John Lackey for 6 years, 98 million dollars

The Mets have a lot of pitching options other than Johan Santana for the 2010 season, but I believe that all of them would be number 4 or 5 pitchers on any other baseball team. This includes Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Jonathan Niese, Fernando Nieve, Tim Redding etc. The Mets need a solid number 2 pitcher that will be an anchor in the rotation behind Johan Santana. Once Lackey is in place, if you think about it, the pitchers previously named would be fine as 3-5 starters. The question is, are the Wilpons willing to spend money on a weak free agent market that is hungry for pitching arms?

3. Trade P Eddie Kunz or SS Ruben Tejada for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

I would love for the Mets to make this deal. I have not heard any rumors on a deal like this, but I think it would work gloriously for both the Mets and the Rangers. It wouldn't even cost that much money or any high-end minor leaguers. The Rangers have a wealth of catching prodigies. I think that Taylor Teagarden is ready to step into a starting role, while Max Ramirez could also be the solution in the long-term future. Not to mention the Rangers have Ivan Rodriguez to play if they decide to keep him. This move would be great for the Mets as well. This would allow them to get rid of the offensive enigma Brian Schneider and add a talented threat at the plate who can hold his own behind it.

Saying this, do not be fooled into believing that I actually think all of this is possible. People constantly are under the impression that the Mets are going to have another atrocious season. This cannot be true. With "just" 3 moves, the Mets would have a far above-average lineup and starting rotation (this is assuming everyone comes back 100% from injury):

LINEUP

1. SS Jose Reyes

2. LF Angel Pagan*

3. CF Carlos Beltran

4. 1B Prince Fielder

5. 3B David Wright

6. RF Jeff Francoeur

7. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

8. 2B Luis Castillo

9. (Pitcher)

*could also put Daniel Murphy in LF

STARTING ROTATION

1. Johan Santana

2. John Lackey

3. Mike Pelfrey

4. John Maine

5. Jonathan Niese

So, in fact, if the Wilpons spent a couple bucks (a couple meaning a lot), the Mets could have a playoff contending team in 2010. This will not happen, I am guessing, but at least the Mets fans have a little bit to hope for. I mean, it doesn't hurt.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Contact me at theshankonsports@yahoo.com

Bill Parcells, Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick... Mike Tomlin?

"Hungry is a word that I've been analyzing here of late. It's not hunger that drives me, it's not hunger that needs to drive our football team. Hunger and thirst are things that can be quenched. We have to be a driven group, we have to seek greatness."
- Tomlin, on preparing for the 2009 season

First things first, I apologize for being offline for such a long time. I hated the gap, but I have been quite the busy bee lately. I am not here to make excuses, so slap me on the wrist and let's get on with it.

I am just going to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction. When it is all said and done, Mike Tomlin will be considered a top 5 NFL head coach of our generation. Just look at what he has already done: He is the 3rd youngest head coach in any of the "Big 4" North American sports, he is the tenth African-American NFL head coach in history (first in Steelers history), and more importantly he has won 1 Super Bowl since becoming head coach in 2007, and has a combined record of 25-11, including postseason. This, my friends, is a legend in the making.

It is highly publicized that it is difficult for some players to deal with a head coach that is younger than some of the players on the team. I say that this can only be a good thing. Tomlin has shown the ability to control and motivate his players while being a highly respected and dominating personality. What a young coach like Tomlin needs, though, is a grounded personality that can morph into a cool and playful attitude as well. Tomlin has both of these traits. Unlike the failure of the young head coach Lane Kiffin, Tomlin can relate with his players, knows what he is talking about, and can back it up with results on the field. Mike Tomlin has a laid-back mode as well. At practice you can see Tomlin joking with the Steelers and talking about non-football activities, but when it is time to get down to business on the sideline, the look of intent, focus, and determination to become victorious becomes obvious on Tomlin's countenance.

Not only this, but he is often considered among the smartest coaches in the NFL. Tomlin knows how to put his guys through a tough training camp so that they are ready for the regular season. Aside from 2009, they have started their last two seasons 4-1 and 5-1 in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Tomlin has manufactured a constantly Grade A performing defense and system offense with a consistent strategy that wins ball games. That is all that Owner Dan Rooney could ask for.

To be a legendary head coach, you must have a plethora of personalities available all at once. You must be able to be flexible and be able to think on the fly, contemplative and problem solving, stern and unrelenting, and nonchalant and amiable. All while calling plays and preparing for the upcoming weekly challenger. Mike Tomlin can, is, and will be all of this. Nothing less is to be expected.

So in about 2033 when Tomlin is retiring with 3 or 4 more Super Bowl titles and 300 some odd wins, don't hesitate to look back at the Shank. On a less braggy note (in case I am, in fact, wrong), let us just say not many people have gotten off to a better start (Let my friend Mr. Numbers tell you):

See if you can guess which coach is which?!

Coach A

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 12-19-1 (.387)*

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 4th Year

Coach B

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 15-9 (.625)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 3rd Year

Coach C

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 15-17 (.469)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 5th Year

Coach D

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 16-16 (.500)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 11th Year

Coach E

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 8-24 (.250)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 3rd Year

Coach F

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 13-19 (.406)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 7th Season

Coach G

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 18-14 (.562)**

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 4th Year

Coach H

Reg. Season Record after 2 Years: 22-10 (.687)

Year of First Super Bowl Victory: 2nd Year

*Second season was a strike-shortened season. I did not count this year.

** First Season was only 9 games. I did not count this year

Meet some of the greatest coaches of all time, plus Tomlin of course. As you might have guessed, Mike Tomlin is Coach H. Here are the rest of your results:

Coach A is Bill Parcells, Coach B is Vince Lombardi, Coach C is Mike Shanahan, Coach D is Tony Dungy, Coach E is Bill Walsh, Coach F is Bill Belichick, and Coach G is Mike Ditka.

Pretty intense company, right? Mike Tomlin may not become the next Don Shula or Bill Belichick, but he is slowly creating a niche of his own Mike Tomlin, and he is off to a pretty darn good start. Tune in at the end of the season.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Contact me at theshankonsports@yahoo.com

The Shank on Sports: 2009 AFC Predictions

Welcome to the conference that has wreaked havoc on the NFL for the past decade. 7 of the past 9 Super Bowl champions have been a part of the American Football Conference. Times, they are a changin'. As I said in my previous post, the NFC is, in fact, catching up. While the AFC still has some of the big powerhouses in the NFL (see Steelers, Patriots, Titans, Colts, Chargers), the NFC could certainly close the gap this year or next year. So, enough of the shenanigans, let me feed thoughts into your head until you agree with me.. Ok? I am simply playing with you, I tend to do that on occasion.

Let's Git 'Er Done! Part 2!!

AFC East

1. New England Patriots 14-2

Meet the New Tom Brady. This is the man that is going to bring the Patriots back to the big show after an injury leave. Whether we like it or not, it is going to happen. I almost guarantee it. Look at the rosters. The one player that could have made a difference on their team last season was Tom Brady, and they still went 11-5. Now put a player who is 2 years removed from the league MVP to an 11-5 team, and you have a Super Bowl contending club. Add to that the fact that the Patriots are only getting younger and better on defense while the trio of running backs, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, and Laurence Maroney are quite improved from 2008. And I haven't even talked about the top 5 wideout in the league named Randy Moss. Look for an outstanding season even with a relatively difficult schedule.

2. New York Jets 9-7

I have a problem with the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. My problem is this: They are trying to be something that they are not. And actually, it could succeed to some degree, but not to the extent that equals a playoff-bound team. New head coach Rex Ryan came from the scary world of the Baltimore Ravens defense. Although former BAL OLB Bart Scott has joined Ryan in the Meadowlands, the Jets do not have dynamic play makers on defense that equal the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. They do have David Harris and Kerry Rhodes, but they are simply not on the same level as the Baltimore defense. I am focusing so much on the defense because that is the unit that is going to have to carry the Jets if they want to be successful. Their offensive unit led by Mark Sanchez, not Brett Favre, is not going to be able to lead the team. It is just fact. So unless young bucks such as Vernon Gholston and Darrelle Revis step up, they will be a average team.

3. Miami Dolphins 8-8

Yes, the Dolphins won the division last year, but I view them as a highly overrated team. I mean, what is a strength of this team? Some would say Ronnie Brown, yet if he did not have that one 4 TD, 113 yard game, he would be a mediocre 800 yd running back with merely 6 TD. Let me turn on my fantasy mind now: I believe that is a 3RB in most leagues. Not good. Don't even get me started about how run-of-the-mill Chad Pennington and the Dolphin WR corps are. They are about as plain as toast for breakfast. Ted Ginn could finally live up to his potential, but with Pennington behind the center, I do not think he will rack up the numbers. And do you really think the "Wildcat" formation is going to fool anyone anymore? EVERYONE is talking about it, and I am not convinced that it even is effective at all. Unless, of course, if it the first time the formation is being used, which it is not. Look for a pedestrian offense, pedestrian defense, and with a little deductive reasoning, expect a pedestrian record.

4. Buffalo Bills 6-10

Can you be a winning franchise with Trent Edwards, Terrell Owens, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans leading your offense? Yes. But can you win when Trent Edwards is on his back and the receivers cannot get the ball? No, and the Bills do not have the offensive line, so Trent Edwards will be on his back a lot. This lack of confidence in the Bill's offense is shown by the firing of their O.C., Turk Schonert, last week. Why on Earth would Bill's GM Russ Brandon trade Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters? What does that achieve for the Bills franchise? This makes no sense to me. And for a team that could have so much potential is simply ruined by a bum offensive line. A defense led by rookie Aaron Maybin and Paul Pozluszny has potential, but the mislead Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games which downgrades the flow of the offense even more. The Bills will be suspended below .500 this season when they could be competing for a wild card spot.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3

Can the Steelers win their 3rd Super Bowl in the last 5 years? Yes they sure have the talent. This is most definitely a defensive-minded team with absolute monsters such as Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley. These men are complete freaks of nature. They combined for 224 tackles, and Harrison & Woodley combined for 26.5 sacks alone. Ben Roethlisberger is not an offensive stat extraordinaire, but he most assuredly gets the job done for this Super Bowl team. You should expect nothing less than an AFC Championship game appearance and possibly another championship performance. I predict that Willie Parker will stay healthy with Rashard Mendenhall stealing some of the carries, and this team will continue to roll in '09.

2. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7

In this preview of the 2009 season, I am taking a lot of chances on teams that might not deserve my praise. I am making some very bold predictions that could end up biting my butt at the end of the season. One example is when I predicted the St. Louis Rams to go to the playoffs in 2007 when in fact they finished 3-13. Yes, this is not the proudest moment in my career, but I blame it on injuries. I have gotten off track, but that is ok because the Bengals are not one of the teams that could possibly fail me this year. Next to their record I should put "at least 9-7". The Bengals are legit and I praise their administration for improving the team so much this offseason. Just through the draft they acquired injured OT Andre Smith, steal LB Rey Maualuga, and steal x2 DE Michael Johnson. Add these young lings to previous draftees LB Keith Rivers and CB Leon Hall, and you have a young defense that is ready to explode. Not only that, but the Bengals will have their potential-filled QB Carson Palmer hopefully returning to full strength which leads to a productive season for our friend Chad Ochocinco. My sleeper pick for 2009: Cedric Benson. Expect at least a 1,100 yard season with double-digit touchdowns. Believe.

3. Baltimore Ravens 5-11

I semi-like this Baltimore Ravens team, but someone has to come in third place in the AFC North this season, and I think it is the Raven's turn. Their defense is phenomenal as it has for the past decade, but even with the potential that Joe Flacco and Ray Rice present on offense, I am definitely not sold on Baltimore's receiving corps led by ex-retiree Derrick Mason. Joe Flacco needs someone to throw to, right? I do not think he can throw to players on the injured reserve where I believe Mason is headed. If you haven't already gotten my ordeal yet I am all about young, young, young, and potential, potential, potential. While Baltimore have 2 possible offensive studs and an improving Terrell Suggs, the rest of this team is just... old. And the Ravens are most definitely NOT the trendy pick for The Shank this yurrr.

4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

Speaking of potential, this team's potential is in the basement of the AFC North. The other three teams in the division are much better by a big margin. Fragile Jamal Lewis will make the running game nonexistent unless rookie James Davis or Jerome Harrison steps up. If Braylon Edwards continues to drop passes at the rate he did last year (league-leading 14) watch this predicted record to drop 1 or 2 wins. Even if Edwards returns back to 2007 form, he will be similar to Megatron on the awful Lions. I am doubtful starter Brady Quinn will even be able to get the ball to the diva in his first year as a starting QB. Just like Quinn dropped in the draft, he is going to have deja vu when Braylon drops ball after ball after ball... Heck I going as far as saying that playing the Browns is going to be like a bye. Maybe the worst team in the league. Go Eric Mangini! Phew... I let that off my chest. I have to RIP a team every once in a while. Shout out to Jonathan Stomberger. Good luck watching this team the whole 2009 season!

AFC South

1. Houston Texans 13-3

Na Na Na, Na. Hey, Hey, Hey... Hello... Yes, welcome to the world of the winning record, Houston. I know it will be a slight adjustment, but I think you will enjoy it. This team is going to rocket to the top of this division. For those of you that do not know, I predicted the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays... I have witnesses... and this is my similar pick for football. I LOVE this team. I think it has a top 5 offense which is going to be so incredibly dangerous against monster defense like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Baltimore. This offense led by Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton also have a core of key role players such as WR Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, and QB Matt Schaub who are all an integral part of this offense and who could all have quietly productive years. They also have an imporved and underrated defense. I love the names on this defense. Who would have thought Mario Williams would live up to be a number one draft pick? If I had to re-do the 2005 draft I would pick Super Mario all over again, and that is rare. They also have young studs among which are DeMeco Ryans, Amobi Okoye, Dunta Robinson, and Brian Cushing. All they need is to put the pieces together and they have built a team that could contend for a long time. Congratulations.

2. Inianapolis Colts 11-5

Is it possible for Peyton Manning to get any better? To reach that next level, whatever that may be for him? I think so. This year he has the most challenges possibly than he has ever had. He has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, a different leading receiver (kind of), and a faulty offenseive line for the first time in the recent history. I still think they are an elite team in the NFL, but only because of Peyton Manning. Look at it this way: expect Joseph Addai to bounce back, Anthony Gonzalez to breakout, and Reggie Wayne to be... well Reggie Wayne. The reason they are NOT ranked higher is because of Tony Dungy. Similar to the Tampa Bay Bucs situation, Jim Caldwell is good, great, wonderful, but he is not Tony Dungy. I think they will take a small step down because of that and should settle for the wild card for the second year in a row.

3. Tennessee Titans 9-7

As I look over the Tennessee Titan's schedule, and I discovered that they have the hardest schedule possible for a team playing the NFC West this season. They have to play all of the AFC powerhouses other than the Chargers, and they are in an incredibly hard division. Actually, as I am writing this, I am watching the Titans lose to the Steelers... tough team, but it is always hard to lose the first game of the season if this is the case. I do love the Chris Johnson and Lendale White RB tandem. I do not love QB Kerry Collins this year although I like the rookie WR Kenny Britt. He should have a solid season, especially for a rookie wideout. Their defense is still above average, even with the absence of Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth. LB Keith Bullock and DT Kyle Vanden Bosch are both beasts and will lift up this defense. And don't let me forget speedster CB Cortland Finnegan who is fastly becoming an elite corner in the league. Look for the talent and tough schedule to meld into a slightly above average team.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

Don't get me wrong, I love MJD (Maurice Jones-Drew), but someone has to fail in this division... seriously, and I see the Jags as the weakest link. Their WR corps has improved with Torry Holt and Troy Williamson, but are still sub-par for an average QB like David Garrard to be able to succeed. Also, the Jaguars no longer have a dual running back threat, so get ready for the 8 man box, Maurice! This will heed the offense from being decent. The defense remains average, and I feel this team definitely has some potential to do better than my record indicates, but I Got a Feelin' that they will not succeed and, perhaps, breakdown. I always have to trust my gut. I am going to be honest, this one of the most boring teams, so I feel like I am just filling space here so it looks like I didn't give the Jags the short end of the stick ;). I will just stop now.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers 12-4

Things more likely to happen than the Chargers not winning the AFC West: The Detroit Lions go 16-0, Chad Ochocinco changes his name to Chad Uno, Barry Bonds never took steroids, and the Mets make it to the playoffs in 2009. Now I might maybe could possibly be over-exaggerating, yet this is how I feel about a horrible division with one obviously dominante team. I am not listening to the critics who say LaDanian Tomlinson is a"breaking down". He will be fine. Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson will excel and become elite players at their positions while Shawn Merriman and Anthonio Cromartie re-establish themselves as leaders on a great defense. The Chargers have already clinched the division in my opinion. If the Chargers do not make the playoffs, I will straight up stop writing this blog.

2. Denver Broncos 7-9

The Broncos have had their fair share of adversity, but I expect that they will do better than people think. Even without Jay Cutler, I think the passing game will be good with the likes of the ornery Brandon Marshall and the underrated Eddie Royal will carry Kyle Orton to sleeper stardom. Also, do not sleep on rookie running back Knowshon Moreno who the Broncos simply love. The offensive line and defense are still bad, but I think that the Broncos role players like Champ Bailey and Robert Ayers will possibly keep this team close to .500. I mean, look at the Raiders and Chiefs... that is 4 wins right there. This is going to sound crazy, but even though Josh McDaniels is a rookie head coach, he is already on the hot seat for the handling of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. I trust almost everyone off of the Bill Belichek tree... except Eric Mangini...

3. Kansas City Chiefs 5-11

Even though I have the Cheifs at a measly 5-11, they have something that I covet: potential. I like their 4 big players on offense: QB Matt Cassel, WR Dwayne Bowe, OT Brandon Albert, and the worn down RB Larry Johnson. Their defense, especially their previously atrocious defensive line, is getting better behind DT Glenn Dorsey and DE Tyson Jackson. They also acquired LB Mike Vrabel as a veteran leader. Look for CB Brandon Flowers to breakout this year. He has the speed and the moves to rack up the INTs and become a lock down corner. I liked seeing the administration overhaul. Todd Haley is going to be a very successful head coach after leading the unbelieveable Arizona offense to the Super Bowl last year. Scott Pioli has done a good job as well. the ceiling for this team, actually, could be around 7-9 or 8-8. Don't be surprised if the Broncos and Cheifs flip-flop in the standings at the end of the year.

4. Oakland Raiders 4-12

Can I take back the +4 I gave Al Davis last week and make it a -40?? Is that allowed by the rules? Oh right, I make the rules, and just about anyone would agree with me that this is a necessary action. It has been 4 days, and DE Richard Seymour has still not shown up at the Raiders facility. He just hasn't shown up and no one knows where he is. This is just an example of what a mess this team actually is. I mean, Tom Cable, really? Tom Cable recently punched a member of his coaching staff in the face... seriously? This is a disaster. The 4-12 is almost the maximum possible record possible. The only thing keeping this team afloat this year will be Darren McFadden. I love this kid, and expect a breakout season. Other than him, this team doesn't have much going for it. If the Raiders were in a division like the AFC East or the NFC North, they would have a much worse record, but they are playing teams like the Broncos and Chiefs, so they should get a few wins. Get it Raider Nation!

AFC Bold Playoff Predictions

Wild Card

3. Houston Texans

vs.

6. Cincinnatti Bengals

Winner: Houston Texans

4. San Diego Chargers

vs.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Winner: San Diego Chargers

Division

1. New England Patriots

vs.

4. San Diego Chargers

Winner: New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

vs.

3. Houston Texans

Winner: Houston Texans

AFC Championship

New England Patriots

vs.

Houston Texans

Winner: New England Patriots

Super Bowl

New England Patriots

vs.

Atlanta Falcons

Winner: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Contact me at theshankonsports@yahoo.com

The Shank on Sports: 2009 NFC Predictions

Are you ready to rumble? I know I am. I don't know many people who are more excited for this upcoming football/fantasy football season that kicks off tomorrow than I am. I looks as if the NFC is greatly improving. Although I do not think they are there yet, they definitely are close to catching up to the AFC. You have probably heard all of the sports website's opinions for this upcoming year. I went through every single matchup for this year and predicted who I thought would win each game. These are not faked records, and you may be surprised about who ends up on top... or not. I have given in-depth explanations describing why these results turned out the way they did. Comments? Concerns? Agree? Disagree? Hit me up.

I will do the NFC today, the AFC tomorrow, and the Super Bowl this weekend. Let's Git 'er Done!

NFC East

1. New York Giants 12-4

The Giants are one of the more well-rounded teams in the NFC, although they do have their fair share of holes. Their formidable defensive line (when healthy) is banged up, their linebackers are unproven, and perhaps the most magnified problem is their lack of talent at the WR position. I believe from what I have seen in the preseason that their first round pick, Hakeem Nicks, can step into the role of lead receiver while Hixon and Smith can complement the rookie. I believe they have what it takes, that once healthy, can take them on a long playoff run with possible Super Bowl implications. They won't have it easy in this division, but they have that kind of defense and running game.

2. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

Many people are high on the Eagles coming into this year. I like their team, but it is hard to win when your MLB, Stewart Bradley, is out for the year, your star running back is oft injured, and Donavan McNabb and the designated wildcat quarterback (Michael Vick) are destined for a controversy in week 3. I do love the speed on the offense. It is the fastest offense possible, I believe: Micheal Vick, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. Also, the formerly porous offensive line has been plugged with Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters. They should have a good-excellent season, and I have them headed for a Wild Card spot.

3. Dallas Cowboys 8-8

The Cowboys are an interesting team. For the past 2 seasons, the Cowboys have undoubtedly had the most talent of any team in the NFC East. It has been the controversy that has held them back, ahem... T.O. would be his name. But that character is gone from Big D. Another problem is that they have a QB and head coach who have each never won a playoff game... EVER. Not a good combination. I expect Roy Williams to step up in T.O.'s absence and after getting used to the offense more. Though I also expect that if the Cowboys do not get it done, whatever "it" may be, then Wade Phillips will most certainly be given a one-way ticket out of Texas.

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

With a much improved defensive line, i.e. Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins could very well greatly exceed my prediction. My problem with them is team chemistry and their offense. I feel like both Clinton Portis and Santana Moss will get injured this year, both coming into an advanced age, and I like Jason Campbell,but in all honesty he was never set up to succeed in Washington. I think that the chemistry is not there because GM Dan Snyder has the tendency to grab a bunch of free agents that might not fit that well together. We will just have to wait and see with this team.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers 12-4

I LOVE the Packers this year. Plain and simple. Yes, they are making the transition to the 3-4 defense. But other than that, I do not see many reasons why this team cannot and should not win... a lot. They have a stud QB who came into his own last year (Aaron Rodgers), They have a stud WR who will benefit from the stud QB getting better (Greg Jennings), and they have a good to above-average running back who turned it on at the end of last season and who I believe can rush for 1200-1400 yards (Ryan Grant). On the defensive side of the ball they also have some superstars that can carry that unit. Aaron Kampman, A.J. Hawk, Charles Woodson, Al Harris, B.J. Raji, are all some of the names that will carry this team to the playoffs. Believe it.

2. Chicago Bears 9-7

When you talk about this division, you must include Da Bears. These three teams make this division arguably the hardest or second hardest in football. Jay Cutler will be HUGE for this football team which has not had a good quarterback since... since forever. And don't say Jim McMahon. That '85 team was all defense. Similar to the Vikings of this year, they have a young stud RB named Matt Forte who I predict will be the leading rusher in the NFL this season. You heard it here... Matthew Forte. I believe that the last wild card spot will be between the Vikings and the Bears, and the race could come down to the Monday night showdown in Week 16 at Soldier Field.

3. Minnesota Vikings 9-7

Brett Favre will make this team better. That is almost a guarantee. The question is how much better. They already have a machine for a RB and a stout D, but can Fav-re play all 16 games? Otherwise, opposing defenses can and will stack 8 men in the box for All-Day Peterson. Just look at this stat: Brett Favre had a 65.7% completion percentage while with the Jets last season. Meanwhile, Tavaris Jackson had a 58.6% comp. percentage and Gus Frerotte had a 59.1% comp. percentage while they shared time at quarterback. This must improve the offense, and combined with an already dangerous Bernard Berrian (20.1 YPR) and Percy Harvin (runs a 4.4 40), they could be in for a big year.

4. Detroit Lions 3-13

Lions, Tigers, Bears... Oh My! The only problem is that the Lions are not that scary. As a matter of fact, I think they will continue their losing streak held over from last season until about Week 8 when they face the St. Louis Rams. I could be wrong, but I think Matthew Stafford is too raw to be starting in Week 1. With last year's history of rookie QBs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, it is hard to argue against starting one this year. But I will guarantee you that Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez will not be comparable to last year's dynamic duo. And Detroit does not necessarily have a great past of developing star quarterbacks (see Joey Harrington) considering they have had 1 Pro Bowl QB in the last 50 years. The only 2 things I like on this team is the beast at wide receiver, Calvin Johnson and their rising star at running back, Kevin Smith. New coach Jim Schwartz will get this team on the right track, but this is not that year for the Lions. Expect another high draft pick.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3

Who ever would have thought that it would only take 2 years to get over the Michael Vick Era. It simply amazes me, and I do not think enough credit is given to that organization. The Falcons are now as formidable on offense as any team in the NFL (with a trio of Ryan-Turner-White) and have the potential on defense to be above average. I think that this club will thrive with their new captain, leading rusher, and Pro Bowl wideout. I think the Falcons could very well make it deep into the playoffs, and I predict a trip to the Super Bowl. This, of course, all goes down the drain if Matt Ryan is accused of running cat fighting rings. Unlikely, but possible.

2. Carolina Panthers 9-7

Meet the Panther Paradox. This team was one of the harder teams to gouge for me. I love their defense, and I love their running game, yet I absolutely hate Jake Delhomme. He has one of the best receivers of the decade, yet I think that this year's Panthers team is due for a considerable drop off. I think the fact that Jonathan Stewart is coming into the year injured hurts this team dramatically because then DeAngelo William's legs will not be as fresh 24/7. This little QB dilemma could cause the crumble of the Panthers this season, although I could also see them make a push for a wild card spot. The NFC is loaded with teams vying for a wild card, so my bet is that they fall short.

3. New Orleans Saints 7-9

Last season, the Saints had possibly the most dynamic passing game in the NFL led by Drew Brees without their top wideout. Now that Marques Colston will be playing 16 games, expect that aspect to only improve. The offense is not the problem, though. Especially not with the birth of the to-be-stud RB Pierre Thomas. Get out the berets! Actually, the big problem on this team is the defense. This is a defense that gave up 24.6 points per game on average. Now they have done some work on this D (drafted Malcolm Jenkins), but they have a couple suspended defensive players that will hurt them in the beginning of the season. Look for an average year unless their offense can have a total shootout every Sunday.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

You probably are looking at this prediction and thinking: How can Hayden predict a team to drop from 9-7 to 2-14?? I will tell you why. Two words: Jon Gruden. Do I think he should have been fired? Not at all. I have always thought that Gruden was one of the cleverest, and best coaches in the NFL, so no offense to Raheem Morris, but it was quite the surprise when I realized he was no longer going to be on the TB sideline. Also, they have major offensive problems. This is indicated by the fact that they fired their offensive coordinator 1.5 weeks before opening kickoff. They also have a troublesome QB situation. Byron Leftwich has failed almost everywhere he has gone, and Josh Freeman is obviously not NFL ready...yet. He will most likely be forced into a starting role in the middle of the season if this year goes the way I am predicting. Also, the fact that rumors are spreading about Cadillac Williams being the starting RB shows the little confidence that the organization has in the other two RBS, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham. I am guessing this will not be a pretty season, especially in the strong NFC South.

NFC West

1. Arizona Cardinals 9-7

Let me just share with you a particularly popular statistic that will define this Cardinal's season:

"Since the 1997 season, the New England Patriots (2008), Chicago Bears (2007), Philadelphia Eagles (2005),Carolina Panthers (2004), Oakland Raiders (2003), St. Louis Rams (2002), New York Giants (2001) and Atlanta Falcons (1999) have all lost the championship game and failed to make the playoffs the next year. The lone Super Bowl losers to make the playoffs in the next season are the Seattle Seahawks (2006) and Green Bay Packers(1998), but some of their players weren't immune to the jinx."

(http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d5d80e5ad25&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true)

I also feel like the Cardinals definitely overachieved last season. A formerly fragile Kurt Warner will not be able to last another season as healthy as he was last season, and the Cardinals defense will not be as good as was during the streaking playoffs last season. Even though they have the best recievers in the league, do not expect another playoff run (even though I predict them going to the playoffs in this HORRIBLE division).

2. San Fransisco 49ers 8-8

I actually like this team going into the season. I could see them sneaking up for the division title in what has become an incredibly weak division and maybe the worst in the league. I love Frank Gore this season to live up to his full rushing/pass-catching ability. He could accumulate close to 1,600 total yards this season. It is a major disappointment that Michael Crabtree is being such a baby with his contract. The whole rookie contract system must be made-over because Crabtree is becoming a franchise-ruiner. He has so much potential, and could make an average Shaun Hill much better, thus potentially launching this team towards the playoffs. On defense, all I have to say is Patrick Willis. Absolute monster. But everything else on that defense is below average. Until the Niners fix their gaping holes, they will stay a .500 or less team.

3. Seattle Seahawks 6-10

This team could and should be higher in this division, but I have a feeling about Matt Hasselbeck. And it isn't a good feeling... He is, of course, growing older. He also is a serious risk to be injured, and you saw what this team was last year when he was absent from the field. Yes, the Seahawks aquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but Housh is no use if the quick-footed Seneca Wallace is tossing him the pigskin. I also HATE their running backs. Likely the worst in the league, Maurice Morris and Julius Jones will not get the job done on the ground. Although I love the combination of Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry in the linebacking corp., I do not see that offense holding up and scoring nearly enough points to keep up with the likes of a particular NFC West scoring machine (Cardinals).

4. St. Louis Rams 3-13

Oh, don't the Rams wish we were back in the 90s when this club was considered "The Greatest Show on Turf". Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, and Torry Holt created the ultimate offense in the game. These days, Marc Bulger is no Kurt Warner, and although Steven Jackson is a premier back in the league, he cannot stay healthy enough to compare to the great Marshall Faulk. Their defense keeps getting better each season. They have many young players on both sides of the ball which include DE Chris Long, WR Donnie Avery, LB James Laurenitis, and OT Jason Smith. They could be better than this record indicates, but I doubt that they will be much better. The Rams goal: take a high octane college QB in next year's draft. That would solidify the Ram's contention in the future. Oh, and one more thing: We miss you over here in New York, Spagnuolo! We are rooting for you!

NFC BOLD PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Wild Card

3. New York Giants

vs.

6. Chicago Bears

Winner: New York Giants

4. Arizona Cardinals

vs.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Division

1. Atlanta Falcons

vs.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

2. Green Bay Packers

vs.

3. New York Giants

Winner: New York Giants

NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons

vs.

New York Giants

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

Disagree? Comment below or email me at theshankonsports@yahoo.com.

Tomorrow: AFC Predictions and Super Bowl XLIV